From what I can tell it's just 640x480. I booted up CSS and 800x600 gets scaled fine. I tried reducing it to 640x480 and the game crashed.
What I can do is set a custom resolution in the nvidia control panel, changing the windows res to 640x480. That actually gets scaled and Starcraft runs at 4:3 fullscreen. It seems that games just won't properly scale when using native resolution, and I don't see any easy fix for this. It's a problem within the driver itself.
Changing the resolution all the time is a workaround at least, but I think I'll just stay with the old drivers until I absolutely have to update. Thanks for the replies, let me know if there are any other tricks I can try