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09-05-2008, 07:23 PM
|  | Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow | | Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: The arctic North Coast
Posts: 23,276
| | And here's the latest AOL poll. The last few elections, they've been pretty accurate. This one has about 124,000 votes. They have such a large pool of people voting, they can avoid a lot of the problems that skew smaller polls... or agenda-driven polls. The surprising thing here is the majority of people in all states are going McCain. 
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09-05-2008, 08:00 PM
|  | Registered User | | Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: NC
Posts: 261
| | Quote:
Originally Posted by DennyCrane  | That's exactly what I was thinking....creepy as hell.
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09-05-2008, 10:10 PM
|  | Horrendiculous! | | Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: S. Jerksey
Posts: 15,210
| | | I believe it'll be way closer than that, with 5-10% lead by McCain.
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09-05-2008, 10:19 PM
| | Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow | | Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: The arctic North Coast
Posts: 23,276
| | | The last couple I tracked with the AOL straw vote were very accurate. Neither had anything like this. Barring an October Surprise, I believe we might be looking at some very surprised, very angry democrats.
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Last edited by DennyCrane; 09-05-2008 at 10:40 PM.
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09-06-2008, 01:58 PM
|  | Jack pwns my FACE | | Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Well above sea level.
Posts: 11,287
| | | that could very well be true - but we still have two months to go. it will be a memorable election regardless that's for sure!
__________________ "Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun." Quote: |
Originally Posted by Denny Crane
That's now my pat answer for anything the Office Idiot says to me... "I have balls of steel... I have balls of steel.. ballsballsballsballsballs.... Blow it out your ass"
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09-06-2008, 02:54 PM
|  | Too Loud! Too Bright! | | Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: a place of settlement, activity, or residence
Posts: 6,525
| | | sigh...Obama is like looking down the barrel of a loaded gun with the safety off and pulling the trigger.
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09-06-2008, 08:07 PM
|  | i35 was win. | | Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,423
| | | Polls are still everywhere in between a tie to an Obama lead within the margin of error.
It clearly shows the flaw in AOL's polling system. Less people is still less indicative of the full population's polling, regardless of how low the margin of error is.
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Originally Posted by knife rush ftw | CoreDuo2.0GHz|3GB|200GB7200RPM|8600M256MB |
09-06-2008, 08:11 PM
| | Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow | | Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: The arctic North Coast
Posts: 23,276
| | Quote:
Originally Posted by Shan/KenDoRin
It clearly shows the flaw in AOL's polling system. Less people is still less indicative of the full population's polling, regardless of how low the margin of error is.
| The problem with what you're saying is that Kerry polled better than Bush, Gore polled better than Bush, etc. As stated, the AOL polls in the last few election cycles have proven far more accurate than the Gallup, Rassmussen, Mason-Dixon, etc polls. I fully agree this is odd, showing all states red... but time will tell.
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09-07-2008, 03:20 AM
|  | OMFG!!!! | | Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: some western town
Posts: 20,946
| | | The democrats will have to be ahead by 10 points on November 4th, because that's about how much the swing usually is from what the polls say.
2000 was predictable because the US was tired of Clinton, and a two-termer usually ends up in flipping to the other side, Reagan/Bush not included. 2004 was a debacle for a few reasons, mostly the error-filled exit polling (done in large cities, focusing on women, big surprise at result) and news organizations eager to call states hours ahead of time. This created the expectation of the win, and the resulting belief that the election was fixed.
This election will be even more debated if Obama loses. Because he's not supposed to. It MUST be a fix, or it must be rampant racism, or it must be whatever else. There's NO WAY that 50% of America is conservative, doesn't want higher taxes, and understands that the war is coming to a close regardless of who is in power (see: troop withdrawal from major areas of Iraq, and soon from Baghdad).
Obama has to create a message greater than "McCain is Bush". It's not working. Tying Palin to Bush sure as hell isn't.
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09-07-2008, 11:14 AM
| | Ooma-mow-mow, papa-ooma-mow-mow | | Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: The arctic North Coast
Posts: 23,276
| | | If Obama loses... that's going to mean democrats will have been in power only 8 out of 24 years.
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